Energy Market 2026: New Rules for Investment, Generation and Trading

On 18 September, the Ukrainian Energy Initiative of the UN Global Compact in Ukraine held the Dialogue Hub “Energy Market 2026: New Rules for Investment, Generation and Trading.” The discussion brought together representatives of NPC Ukrenergo, Market Operator JSC and Altelaw&Sempra. Our firm was represented by Olga Savchenko, Senior Partner and Head of the Energy Practice, and Ihor Retivov, Partner and Head of the GR and Business Development Practice. Here are some of the key points from our speakers:

Olga Savchenko: Market Coupling, Negative Prices and Case Law

Olga Savchenko, Senior Partner at the law firm Altelaw&Sempra, spoke about the law implementing the provisions of the EU’s Fourth Energy Package, often referred to as “market coupling.”

Among the key changes she highlighted:

• ACER (the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) appears on the market, along with a nominated electricity market operator (NEMO), a regional coordination centre and new market agents;
• upper and lower price caps disappear, as does any support that contradicts free competition;
• electricity import and export are simplified and combined with financial instruments;
• single EU prices are introduced, along with demand-side management and demand response, a new instrument that gives consumers financial incentives;
• negative prices are due to appear on the market by 1 May 2027, and they are expected to affect the operation of battery systems.

Olga also explained the changes to the formula for connecting energy storage systems (ESS) to the grid. The regulator initially proposed calculating the connection cost for both consumption and supply of electricity at the same time, which provoked protests from the market. At the end of August, a transitional period was introduced for those who manage to complete construction by 1 January 2027, and the new draft law No. 14271 (not yet signed) proposes a fairer formula that deducts the cost of shared technical measures.

Olga also addressed case law in the energy sector: the recovery of principal debt under contracts with the Guaranteed Buyer and Ukrenergo is not restricted by the moratorium, whereas penalties for the wartime period cannot be recovered, except for debt that arose before martial law was introduced.

Ihor Retivov: Green Auctions and the Price of Investor Trust

Ihor Retivov, Partner in the GR Practice at Altelaw&Sempra, focused on the new green auctions held by the Guaranteed Buyer under the new rules.

Under the new FiT Premium mechanism, an indicative (cap) price is set for different technologies:

• 8 eurocents for solar power plants (SPPs);
• 12 eurocents for SPPs combined with an energy storage system (SPP+ESS);
• 8 eurocents for wind power plants (WPPs).

The total quota for 2026 is about 1,000 MW, of which roughly 70% (700 MW) is allocated to wind projects. Auction participants must provide a bid guarantee, and after being declared a winner, pay EUR 10 per kW of capacity for the construction period; this amount is refunded if the facility is commissioned on time. For the hybrid SPP+ESS lot, a technical requirement has been added: at least 2 kWh of ESS per 1 kW of the plant’s nominated capacity.

Ihor drew attention to the key problem of the support market:

“The rules under which auction participants take part must either remain unchanged or be predictable in terms of what will change. Changing the rules midstream seriously undermines investor confidence. It also seriously undermines banks’ ability to finance such projects, because they rely on specific economic models, and a change of rules always alters them for the worse.”

As an example, he cited participants in Ukrenergo’s ancillary services auctions, who, two years after the launch, are facing changes to the rules on imbalances and penalties. Even if the reasons for these changes are objective, how they are communicated has a critical effect on market trust.